Custodes Futurifor the advancement of humanity

Factor 07 of 9

Environmental factors

Conditions outside the person, from air and water to heat, geography, and the built environment, many of which policy and infrastructure can change.

Barriers within this factor

Each barrier has its own page with the evidence and sources behind it.

  1. 1Air pollution

    Air pollution is associated with millions of premature deaths and can impair thinking, and household pollution from cooking fuels kills children.

    Evidence and sources (2 evidence points, 5 experimental methods)

  2. 2Lead and toxic chemicals

    Lead and other toxic chemicals damage brain development, and no safe level of lead is known.

    Evidence and sources (4 evidence points, 5 experimental methods)

  3. 3Heat and climate change

    Heat reduces learning and economic output and causes deaths.

    Evidence and sources (4 evidence points, 5 experimental methods)

  4. 4Infectious disease environment

    Infectious disease harms health and schooling.

    Evidence and sources (2 evidence points, 5 experimental methods)

  5. 5Water and sanitation

    Unsafe water and sanitation affect billions of people and kill children.

    Evidence and sources (4 evidence points, 3 experimental methods)

  6. 6Geography

    Researchers disagree about how much geography matters.

    Evidence and sources (3 evidence points, 6 experimental methods)

  7. 7Natural resource dependence

    Dependence on natural resources can slow a country's growth.

    Evidence and sources (4 evidence points, 6 experimental methods)

  8. 8Earth's life-support systems

    Most planetary boundaries are now exceeded.

    Evidence and sources (4 evidence points, 5 experimental methods)

  9. 9The built environment

    The places children grow up in are linked to their later health.

    Evidence and sources (4 evidence points, 5 experimental methods)

Evidence strength

Main findings behind this page, grouped by the strength ratings, from strongest to weakest. Each tier lists the findings that received that rating.

StrengthFindings
StrongHeat and test scores.
ModerateLead and IQ. Air pollution and test scores. Malaria and water burden estimates from agencies.
LimitedGlobal death and cost estimates for air pollution and lead (model-based). Green space and mental health (correlational). Planetary boundaries.
Contested or debatedGeography versus institutions. The resource curse. Long-term climate cost projections. Hookworm and schooling (questioned on replication).

Actions that can reduce these barriers

Proven actions for the environmental barriers have not yet been researched. Each barrier below lists proposed and experimental methods only, with the stage labels and ratings explained below.

Proposed and experimental methods

Each barrier also has a list of proposed and experimental methods. It covers methods that are proposed, under trial, approved in some places but not widely used, or tried and then failed or reversed, so readers can see what is being tested. Each method has a stage label and an evidence rating in parentheses. The stage labels are Theoretical (proposed but not yet tested as an intervention), Early trial (small or first studies), Large trial (large randomized or field trials), Approved but not scaled (legally approved or running in some places but not widely adopted), In wide use (widely adopted but newly tested or questioned), Sold commercially without trials (used for polygenic embryo screening), and Failed or reversed (tested and shown not to work, or adopted and then withdrawn). The word contested is added where the evidence is disputed. Failed, reversed, and unhelpful methods are listed last and begin with "Failed," "Reversed," or "Not shown to help." A stage label shows how far a method has progressed, not whether it works, and the rating shows the strength of the evidence.

Ideal conditions that counter this factor

Physical environment

What the evidence shows

Heat and pollution have direct, measured effects on learning. Without air conditioning, a 1°F hotter school year reduced that year's learning by 1 percent (Park et al., 2020). Children who grew up with the least nearby green space had up to 55% higher risk of various psychiatric disorders, though this is correlational (Engemann et al., 2019).

Ideal:

  • Climate-controlled learning spaces
  • Green space and safe places to explore
  • Stable housing without chronic noise or crowding

Evidence strength: Mixed. Strong for heat and pollution, and correlational for green space.

All ten conditions

In the pioneer cases

Statements from the pioneer records that this site classifies under the environmental factor. The classification is this site's.

PioneerEffectStatement
Albert EinsteinHelpedA field ready for a breakthrough. Physics was in crisis around 1900: the Michelson-Morley null result (1887), Lorentz's and Poincaré's electrodynamics, and Planck's 1900 quantum hypothesis. Einstein felt someone else would have found special relativity, but regarded general relativity as harder and more original.
Michael FaradayHelpedA productive field. Discoveries by Oersted, Biot, and Ampère around 1820 linked electricity and magnetism.
Marie CurieHelpedA new field. Becquerel's 1896 discovery opened radioactivity just as she chose a doctoral topic.
Ludwig van BeethovenBarrierLead exposure. A 2024 letter in Clinical Chemistry tested two authenticated locks of his hair and estimated his blood lead at 69 to 71 µg/dL. Such levels are commonly associated with stomach and kidney problems and decreased hearing.
Ludwig van BeethovenNoteThe locks date from about 1820 to 1827, so they cannot show whether lead exposure preceded his hearing loss. The authors do not think lead alone caused his deafness or death. Lead exposure is well supported. Lead as the cause of his deafness is rated C.
Fritz HaberNoteHaber also directed Germany's development of poison gas in World War I and supervised the first chlorine attack at Ypres in 1915. His wife, the chemist Clara Immerwahr, who is widely described as opposing gas warfare, took her own life days later. Nitrogen fertilizer has also contributed to water and air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and biodiversity loss (Erisman et al., 2008). Like Franklin's, his case shows that one person can make great benefits possible and also cause great harm.

Key figures

MeasureValueSource
Premature deaths, ambient plus household air pollution6.7 million per yearWHO
Premature deaths, ambient air pollutionAbout 4.2 millionWHO
Household air pollution deaths, 20212.9 million (over 309,000 children under 5)WHO
IQ loss, blood lead from 2.4 to 30 µg/dL6.9 points (1,333 children)Lanphear et al. (2005)
Americans with high early-childhood lead exposureOver 170 million, about 824 million IQ pointsMcFarland et al. (2022)
Global lead burden, 2019765 million IQ points lost in children under 5, about 5.5 million adult cardiovascular deaths, over 90% of the harm in low- and middle-income countries, and a cost of about US$6.0 trillion (roughly 6.9% of global GDP)Larsen and Sánchez-Triana (2023), model estimate with wide uncertainty
All pollution combinedAbout 9 million deaths per year, one in sixFuller et al. (2022)
Growth in "modern" pollution deaths since 2000Over 66%Fuller et al. (2022)
Learning lost per 1°F hotter school year, no air conditioning1 percent of that year's learning. Hot school days accounted for roughly 5 percent of the racial achievement gapPark et al. (2020), 10 million students who retook the PSAT
Average annual temperature at which productivity peaksAbout 13°CBurke et al. (2015)
Projected cut in global incomes by 2100, unmitigated warmingRoughly 23%. This depends on adaptation assumptions and is debatedBurke et al. (2015)
Malaria, 2024282 million cases and 610,000 deaths, up from a revised 273 million cases in 2023. About 95% of deaths occurred in the WHO African Region, mostly among children under 5WHO World Malaria Report 2025
School-aged children in the American South with hookworm40%Rockefeller Sanitary Commission
Effect of hookworm treatmentAreas with higher infection saw larger gains in enrollment, attendance, literacy, and later income. An independent replication questioned whether these benefits are robustBleakley (2007), Roodman (2018)
Lack safely managed drinking water2.1 billion, including 106 million who drink untreated surface waterWHO/UNICEF JMP 2025
Lack safely managed sanitation3.4 billion, including 354 million who practice open defecationWHO/UNICEF JMP 2025
Planetary boundaries exceeded7 of 9: climate change, biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical flows, novel entities, and ocean acidification. Only aerosol loading and stratospheric ozone remain in the safe zonePlanetary Health Check 2025
Psychiatric disorder risk, least vs. most childhood green spaceUp to 55% higher (correlational)Engemann et al. (2019)

References cited on this page

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  2. WHO/Europe: Heat claims more than 175 000 lives annually in the WHO European Region (2024)
  3. WHO: Burden of disease from unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, 2019 update (2023)
  4. Zhang, X., Chen, X., & Zhang, X. (2018). The impact of exposure to air pollution on cognitive performance. PNAS, 115(37), 9193-9197. DOI
  5. Lanphear, B. P., et al. (2005). Low-level environmental lead exposure and children's intellectual function. Environmental Health Perspectives, 113(7), 894-899. DOI
  6. McFarland, M. J., Hauer, M. E., & Reuben, A. (2022). Half of US population exposed to adverse lead levels in early childhood. PNAS, 119(11), e2118631119. DOI
  7. Larsen, B., & Sánchez-Triana, E. (2023). Global health burden and cost of lead exposure in children and adults. Lancet Planetary Health, 7(10), e831-e840. DOI00166-3)
  8. Fuller, R., et al. (2022). Pollution and health: a progress update. Lancet Planetary Health, 6(6), e535-e547. DOI00090-0)
  9. Landrigan, P. J., et al. (2018). The Lancet Commission on pollution and health. Lancet, 391(10119), 462-512. DOI32345-0)
  10. Park, R. J., Goodman, J., Hurwitz, M., & Smith, J. (2020). Heat and learning. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12(2), 306-339. AEA
  11. Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature, 527, 235-239. DOI
  12. WHO: World Malaria Report 2025
  13. Bleakley, H. (2007). Disease and development: evidence from hookworm eradication in the American South. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(1), 73-117. Oxford Academic
  14. WHO/UNICEF JMP 2025: 1 in 4 people lack safe drinking water
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  17. Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45, 827-838.
  18. Stockholm Resilience Centre: Planetary Health Check 2025
  19. Engemann, K., et al. (2019). Residential green space in childhood is associated with lower risk of psychiatric disorders. PNAS, 116(11), 5188-5193. DOI
  20. Roodman, D. (2018). The impacts of hookworm eradication in the American South: a replication study of Bleakley (2007). International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics, 2, 1-45. JCR-Econ

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