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Factor 02 of 9

Psychological factors

Patterns of thought and feeling that distort judgment, discount the future, and narrow what people try.

Barriers within this factor

Each barrier has its own page with the evidence and sources behind it.

  1. 1Cognitive biases

    Tversky and Kahneman (1974) documented systematic errors such as anchoring and the availability heuristic. Confirmation bias leads people to favor information that fits existing beliefs.

    Evidence and sources (2 evidence points, 6 actions, 5 experimental methods)

  2. 2Loss aversion and status quo bias

    Prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) proposed that losses weigh more heavily than equal gains, making people and institutions reluctant to change.

    Evidence and sources (3 evidence points, 5 actions, 4 experimental methods)

  3. 3Present bias

    Steep discounting of future rewards, often modeled as hyperbolic discounting (Laibson, 1997), undermines saving, education, health habits, and long-term planning.

    Evidence and sources (3 evidence points, 5 actions, 7 experimental methods)

  4. 4Learned helplessness

    Seligman and Maier (1967) found repeated uncontrollable setbacks can teach an organism to stop trying. Maier and Seligman (2016) revised this, concluding that passivity is the default response to prolonged adversity and that a sense of control must be learned.

    Evidence and sources (3 evidence points, 7 actions, 4 experimental methods)

  5. 5Fear, anxiety, and depression

    Fear, anxiety, and depression narrow attention, reduce risk-taking, lower motivation, and are among the leading causes of disability worldwide.

    Evidence and sources (2 evidence points, 10 actions, 9 experimental methods)

  6. 6Fixed beliefs about ability

    Dweck (2006) proposed that people who view ability as fixed avoid challenges. Later large studies found real but small effects.

    Evidence and sources (2 evidence points, 3 actions, 3 experimental methods)

  7. 7Cognitive dissonance and motivated reasoning

    Festinger (1957) described the discomfort people feel when their beliefs or actions conflict, which they often reduce by changing a belief or rejecting conflicting evidence. The theory's details are debated (rated C in the strength ratings).

    Evidence and sources (3 evidence points, 6 actions, 6 experimental methods)

  8. 8Antisocial and self-serving traits

    Narcissism, manipulativeness, psychopathy, and greed mainly harm other people and institutions. Caution: everyone has these traits to some degree, and their worst forms trace largely to early-life disadvantage. The evidence supports improving childhoods, not labeling or excluding people.

    Evidence and sources (4 evidence points, 8 actions, 7 experimental methods)

Evidence strength

Main findings behind this page, grouped by the strength ratings, from strongest to weakest. Each tier lists the findings that received that rating.

StrengthFindings
StrongAnchoring. Loss aversion as an average tendency. The rate at which psychology studies replicate. The small average effect of mindset interventions.
ModerateSelective exposure to information. The average size of loss aversion. Dark Triad traits and leadership. Gym attendance as behavior.
LimitedLearned helplessness in people. Narcissistic CEOs. Dispositional greed. The 2.25 loss aversion figure.
Contested or debatedThe claim that higher social class causes unethical behavior. The classic effect of choice in cognitive dissonance.

Actions that can reduce these barriers

This section identifies changes that governments, health systems, organizations, schools, employers, and families can make to reduce these barriers. Each action carries an evidence rating on the scale used in the strength ratings (A strong and replicated, B solid but limited, C weak or debated, D contested or failed), applied to the specific claim made. All sources were checked against their abstracts or full texts.

Each barrier page lists the actions that apply to it, with ratings and sources.

Who can act

ActorHighest-value psychological actions
GovernmentsAutomatic enrollment in retirement savings with automatic increases, pesticide bans, cash transfers and graduation programs for the poorest households, lead removal, whistleblower protection, funding for collaborative care and lay-worker therapy, testing policies at scale before rollout
Health systemsCollaborative care, lay health worker therapy with supervision, guided internet CBT, behavioral activation, antidepressants where indicated, timely reminders with a concrete next step
Nonprofits and organizationsRole-model media in poor communities, deep canvassing, misinformation corrections, independent evaluation of programs before scaling
Schools and employersValidated formulas and structured interviews in admissions and hiring, lateral reading lessons, targeted rather than universal mental health programs, changes to workload and job design rather than individual wellbeing offerings
Families and individualsParent training for conduct problems, "consider the opposite" before decisions, specific if-then plans, seeking evidence-based therapy

Lessons across the actions

  1. Changing environments and defaults works better than training people to think differently. Automatic enrollment, pesticide bans, lead removal, and cash have stronger evidence than debiasing games, mindset lessons, resilience classes, or forecasting training.
  2. Effects reported in published studies are often several times larger than effects at scale. Nudges, mindset, prebunking games, and school resilience programs shrank or vanished when scaled up or tested independently.
  3. Therapy works and can be delivered cheaply by trained lay workers, but results fade without supervision and quality control.

Limits: Many outcomes are self-reported, much of the decision science comes from the United States, and several actions rest on a single trial. The persistence of corrections to misinformation, effect sizes for lateral reading, crime-specific results from Perry Preschool and Abecedarian, and the findings of the devil's advocacy meta-analysis could not be confirmed.

Proposed and experimental methods

Each barrier also has a list of proposed and experimental methods. It covers methods that are proposed, under trial, approved in some places but not widely used, or tried and then failed or reversed, so readers can see what is being tested. Each method has a stage label and an evidence rating in parentheses. The stage labels are Theoretical (proposed but not yet tested as an intervention), Early trial (small or first studies), Large trial (large randomized or field trials), Approved but not scaled (legally approved or running in some places but not widely adopted), In wide use (widely adopted but newly tested or questioned), Sold commercially without trials (used for polygenic embryo screening), and Failed or reversed (tested and shown not to work, or adopted and then withdrawn). The word contested is added where the evidence is disputed. Failed, reversed, and unhelpful methods are listed last and begin with "Failed," "Reversed," or "Not shown to help." A stage label shows how far a method has progressed, not whether it works, and the rating shows the strength of the evidence.

Ideal conditions that counter this factor

Psychological conditions

What the evidence shows

Self-Determination Theory finds autonomy, competence, and relatedness support intrinsic motivation (Ryan and Deci, 2000). Brief interventions such as growth-mindset training show small effects.

Ideal:

  • Environments that encourage questions and self-directed exploration
  • Experiences of mastery
  • Supportive relationships
  • Norms that treat failure as learning
  • Mental health support

Evidence strength: Moderate. The supporting research is largely correlational, and mindset interventions show small effects.

All ten conditions

In the pioneer cases

Statements from the pioneer records that this site classifies under the psychological factor. The classification is this site's.

PioneerEffectStatement
Albert EinsteinHelpedEarly curiosity. In his Autobiographical Notes (1949), he described a compass fascinating him as a child and, at 12, a Euclidean geometry book he called his "holy geometry booklet."
Albert EinsteinHelpedThought experiments, such as imagining riding alongside a beam of light at about 16.
Albert EinsteinHelpedIndependence from authority. He disliked his rote Munich gymnasium and left it as a teenager. This skepticism later let him question absolute time.
Albert EinsteinHelpedPersistence. General relativity took about eight years, from 1907 to November 1915, including a flawed intermediate theory.
Albert EinsteinHelpedResilience. From 1900 to 1902 he could not get an academic position but kept working on physics.
Michael FaradayHelpedInitiative. He wrote up and bound his notes from the lectures and sent them to Davy.
Srinivasa RamanujanHelpedPersistence. Earlier letters to British mathematicians were discouraged. In January 1913 he wrote to G. H. Hardy.
Katalin KarikóHelpedPersistence in her vision despite funders' doubts.
Tu YouyouHelpedA close reading of an ancient text. After more than 100 herbal extracts produced few promising results, she reread Ge Hong's A Handbook of Prescriptions for Emergencies, which describes soaking qinghao (sweet wormwood) in cold water rather than boiling it. She reasoned that heat was destroying the active ingredient and switched to low-temperature extraction with ether. In October 1971, sample number 191 fully suppressed malaria parasites in rodents.
Tu YouyouHelpedPersonal risk. In July 1972, she and two colleagues took the extract themselves to speed up the safety evaluation. The first clinical trial that year treated 21 patients, and all recovered.
Ignaz SemmelweisBarrierHis response alienated allies. When his book was ignored or rejected, he wrote scathing open letters that alienated even his friends.
Mary WollstonecraftHelpedSelf-teaching. She taught herself several European languages while reviewing and translating.
Yuan LongpingHelpedPersistence in the field. In 1964 he and a student searched about 14,000 rice ears and found six male-sterile plants. He published the finding in 1966.

Key figures

MeasureValueSource
People living with a mental health conditionMore than 1 billion, roughly 1 in 8. Anxiety and depressive disorders are the most commonWHO (2025)
Working days lost to depression and anxiety each yearAn estimated 12 billion, costing about US$1 trillion in lost productivityWHO fact sheet on mental health at work
Size of loss aversionThe often-quoted figure that losses weigh 2.25 times as much as gains comes from Tversky and Kahneman (1992), a study of 25 graduate students, not from the 1979 prospect theory paper. A 2024 meta-analysis of 607 estimates from 150 articles found an average of 1.96. A separate meta-analysis of risky choices found a smaller average of 1.31, so the size of loss aversion depends on the settingBrown et al. (2024), Walasek et al. (2024)
Learned helplessness, revised viewPassivity is the default, control must be learnedMaier and Seligman (2016)
Replication of 100 published psychology studies97% of the originals had significant results, but only 36% of the replications did. Replication effects averaged half the size of the originalsOpen Science Collaboration (2015)
Mindset and achievement, two meta-analyses273 studies (365,915 people) on mindset and achievement and 43 studies (57,155 people) on mindset interventions. Overall effects were weak in both, though students with low socioeconomic status or at academic risk may benefitSisk et al. (2018)
Online mindset intervention of under one hourImproved grades among lower-achieving students and increased enrollment in advanced math, mainly in schools where peer norms supported the messageYeager et al. (2019), nationally representative U.S. sample
Dark Triad traits and work behaviorA meta-analysis of 245 samples (43,907 people) found that narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy were all associated with counterproductive work behavior, and Machiavellianism and psychopathy with lower job performance. The effects depended on context, including authority and cultureO'Boyle et al. (2012)
Narcissism and leadershipNarcissism predicts who emerges as a leader, largely through extraversion, but not how effective leaders are. Narcissistic leaders rate themselves as more effective, while supervisors, subordinates, and peers do not. Moderate narcissism appeared bestGrijalva et al. (2015)
Narcissistic CEOsAmong 111 computer-industry CEOs, narcissism was linked to bold strategies, more and larger acquisitions, and extreme, fluctuating results, but not to better or worse performance overallChatterjee and Hambrick (2007)
Dispositional greedPeople higher in dispositional greed kept more money for themselves in economic games, judged transgressions more acceptable, and were more likely to accept a bribe in a laboratory study. Greed was linked to lower self-control and life satisfactionSeuntjens et al. (2015, 2019)
Social class and unethical behaviorA widely cited claim that higher social class causes unethical behavior (Piff et al., 2012) failed two well-powered, preregistered replications of its field studies. Greed as a trait and wealth are different thingsJung et al. (2023)
Childhood conduct problems and later costs, Dunedin cohortThe 9% whose childhood conduct problems persisted into adulthood accounted for 53% of all criminal convictions and 25% of welfare benefit monthsRivenbark et al. (2018)
Concentration of costs, Dunedin cohortOne-fifth of members accounted for 81% of criminal convictions, 66% of welfare benefits, and 57% of hospital nights. Poor brain health at age 3 predicted this groupCaspi et al. (2016)
Concentration of costs in 4 million peopleThe same concentration of costs in a small population segment appeared in records of 1.7 million New Zealanders and 2.3 million Danes. That segment had early-life disadvantages, including low education and poor mental healthRichmond-Rakerd et al. (2020)
Economic impact of violence, 2025$21.8 trillion, or 10.5% of global GDP. Most of this is military and internal security spending, not individual behavior. Homicide was about 6% of the total in the previous year's estimateInstitute for Economics and Peace (ThisDay, 2026, and Vision of Humanity)
Selective exposure to informationA meta-analysis of 91 studies with nearly 8,000 participants found a moderate preference for information that supports existing views over information that challenges them (d = 0.36). The bias was stronger in more closed-minded people and when beliefs were tied to values, and it reversed when challenging information was useful for a current goalHart et al. (2009)
Gym memberships and present biasAmong 7,752 members of three U.S. health clubs, those who chose a flat monthly fee of over $70 attended on average 4.3 times a month, paying more than $17 per visit when a 10-visit pass cost $10 per visit. On average they gave up about $600 over their membership. The authors attribute this to overconfidence about future self-control. Later research debates the explanation: a membership may serve as a commitment device, people may simply overpredict how often they will go (one experiment found predictions about three times actual attendance), or they may prefer a single paymentDellaVigna and Malmendier (2006), Acland and Levy
How common learned helplessness isNo large study of how common learned helplessness is in people was found. Maier and Seligman (2016) revised the original theory using animal neuroscience, concluding that passivity is the default response to prolonged adversity and that a sense of control must be learned. The Ethiopian aspirations trial under cultural factors is the closest human evidence that expectations of what is possible can be changed. Laboratory studies in people show a pattern consistent with the theory: in one, a single failure improved later performance while four failures worsened it (Mikulincer, Kedem, and Zilkha-Segal, 1989). Critics argue such deficits can arise from causes other than expecting future lack of control, and that artificial lab tasks may not generalize (Silver, Wortman, and Klos, 1982). No study linking learned helplessness to real-world achievement was found, so this barrier is rated CMaier and Seligman (2016), Mikulincer et al. (1989)
Cognitive dissonance replicationA preregistered replication in 39 labs with nearly 4,900 people found that writing an essay against one's own view shifted attitudes, but having a choice about writing it made no difference, contradicting the classic prediction. The selective exposure meta-analysis above supports the related prediction that people avoid information that conflicts with their beliefsVaidis et al. (2024), Hart et al. (2009)

References cited on this page

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  11. WHO: Mental health at work fact sheet
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