Fatalism

Proposed and experimental methods

Methods that are proposed, under trial, approved in some places, or tried and then failed. Each shows a stage label and an evidence rating. A stage label shows how far a method has progressed, not whether it works. The stage labels are explained on the cultural factor page.

• Adding psychosocial support to anti-poverty programs (Large trial, B). This builds on the Ethiopian documentary trial in the evidence above (Bernard et al., 2026). In Niger, 322 villages were randomized among poor women already receiving government cash transfers. One arm added a week of life-skills training (goal setting, problem-solving, leadership) and a video and community discussion about aspirations and social norms to savings groups and coaching. At about 18 months this arm raised consumption by 0.18 standard deviations, beneficiary revenues by 0.25, and mental health by 0.21 compared with controls, and it had the highest benefit to cost ratio (1.709) of the three arms (Bossuroy et al., 2022). The psychosocial components were always combined with other support, so their separate effect is inferred by comparison between arms.
• Showing that real opportunities exist (Large trial, B). Recruiters placed for three years in 80 randomly chosen Indian villages connected young women to new office jobs in business process outsourcing. Compared with 80 control villages, women aged 18 to 24 were 4.6 percentage points more likely to work in such jobs, their desire to work before marriage rose 13 percentage points, and women aged 15 to 21 were 5.1 percentage points less likely to marry or give birth (Jensen, 2012). The study changed both information and actual access to jobs.
• Role model films for students (Early trial, B). Secondary school students in Uganda were randomly assigned to watch Queen of Katwe, a film about a girl from a Kampala slum who becomes a chess champion, or a placebo film before national exams. Viewers did better, especially in math, the effect was largest for girls, and female viewers were more likely to stay in education in later years (Riley, 2024). It is a single trial with one film.
• Not shown to help: a light-touch aspirations video for adults in Ethiopia's safety net (Failed or reversed, B). A randomized trial of a short aspirations video with 5,258 adults from 3,220 households receiving Productive Safety Net Program benefits found no significant effects after nine months on self-reported aspirations, investment in children's education, or savings (Leight et al., 2024). The authors conclude that light-touch aspiration treatments may have limited effects for extremely poor adults in this setting. Personal initiative training, a related approach, is in "Learned helplessness and low sense of control" in the psychological factors.

Sources cited on this page

1. Bernard, T., Dercon, S., Orkin, K., Schinaia, G., & Taffesse, A. S. (2026). The future in mind: aspirations and long-term outcomes in rural Ethiopia. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 141, 1383-1447. DOI B Moderate: single trial
2. Jensen, R. (2012). Do labor market opportunities affect young women's work and family decisions? Experimental evidence from India. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(2), 753-792. link B Moderate
3. Leight, J., Gilligan, D. O., Mulford, M., Taffesse, A. S., & Tambet, H. (2024). Aspiring to more? New evidence on the effect of light-touch aspirations interventions in rural Ethiopia. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 16(4), 485-498. link B Moderate
4. Riley, E. (2024). Role models in movies: The impact of Queen of Katwe on students' educational attainment. Review of Economics and Statistics, 106(2), 334-351. link B Moderate

Every source for this factor is listed on the cultural factor page.