Conflict and violence

Proposed and experimental methods

Methods that are proposed, under trial, approved in some places, or tried and then failed. Each shows a stage label and an evidence rating. A stage label shows how far a method has progressed, not whether it works. The stage labels are explained on the societal factor page.

• Therapy plus cash for men at high risk of violence (Large trial, B). Liberia's Sustainable Transformation of Youth program gave criminally engaged men eight weeks of low-cost cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) to build self-control and a non-criminal identity, with or without a $200 grant. Cash after therapy sharply reduced crime and violence for at least a year, while either alone had effects that faded (Blattman et al., 2017). Ten years later, among 999 men, therapy alone reduced antisocial behaviors such as robbery and drug selling by 0.2 standard deviations and therapy plus cash by 0.25, with effects concentrated among the highest-risk men (Blattman et al., 2023).
• Larger UN peacekeeping troop deployments (In wide use, B). Using data on all African civil wars from 1992 to 2011, more armed UN military troops were linked to fewer battlefield deaths, while police and observers showed no such link (Hultman et al., 2014). A review of the quantitative research concluded there is a strong relationship between peacekeeping and peace despite known methodological problems (Walter et al., 2021). Missions are not assigned at random, so the studies rely on statistical controls.
• Jobs plus CBT for men at highest risk of gun violence, READI Chicago (Large trial, C). READI offered an 18-month job, CBT, and other support to 2,456 men identified by an algorithm or by outreach workers. After 20 months there was no significant change in the main index of serious violence, shooting and homicide arrests fell 65% but not significantly after adjustment for multiple tests (p = .13), and among men referred by outreach workers shooting and homicide arrests fell 79% and victimizations 43% (Bhatt et al., 2024). Only 55% of the treatment group started the program.
• Violence interruption, Cure Violence (In wide use, contested, C). Cure Violence treats shootings like a contagious disease, using credible messengers to mediate conflicts and change norms. A systematic review by the program's own organization found 13 papers covering 27 sites with 83 findings, of which 68.7% showed fewer shootings or killings and 32.5% showed statistically significant decreases, with Baltimore sites the main exception (Ransford et al., 2025). An independent review described several challenges facing evaluators of the model (Butts et al., 2015). Evaluations are mostly non-randomized, and the newest review was written by the developer.
• Not shown to help: Community development aid during active insurgency (Failed or reversed, B). In the Philippines, municipalities just eligible for a large community-driven development program, based on a poverty cut-off, saw a large rise in conflict casualties compared with those just ineligible, mostly from insurgent attacks during the program's early stages, which the authors read as insurgents trying to sabotage it (Crost et al., 2014).
• Reversed: UN peacekeeping in Mali, MINUSMA (Failed or reversed, B). In June 2023, after Mali's transitional government asked for its prompt withdrawal, the UN Security Council unanimously ended the mission's mandate, with all personnel to leave by December 31, 2023 (United Nations, 2023). This shows that peacekeeping depends on host consent.

Sources cited on this page

1. Bhatt, M. P., Heller, S. B., Kapustin, M., Bertrand, M., & Blattman, C. (2024). Predicting and preventing gun violence: An experimental evaluation of READI Chicago. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 139(1), 1-56. link B Moderate
2. Blattman, C., Chaskel, S., Jamison, J. C., & Sheridan, M. (2023). Cognitive behavioral therapy reduces crime and violence over ten years: Experimental evidence. American Economic Review: Insights, 5(4), 527-545. link B Moderate
3. Blattman, C., Jamison, J. C., & Sheridan, M. (2017). Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia. American Economic Review, 107(4), 1165-1206. link B Moderate
4. Butts, J. A., Roman, C. G., Bostwick, L., & Porter, J. R. (2015). Cure Violence: A public health model to reduce gun violence. Annual Review of Public Health, 36, 39-53. link C Limited
5. Crost, B., Felter, J., & Johnston, P. (2014). Aid under fire: Development projects and civil conflict. American Economic Review, 104(6), 1833-1856. link B Moderate
6. Hultman, L., Kathman, J., & Shannon, M. (2014). Beyond keeping peace: United Nations effectiveness in the midst of fighting. American Political Science Review, 108(4), 737-753. link B Moderate
7. Ransford, C., Williams, M., & Slutkin, G. (2025). A systematic review on the effectiveness of the Cure Violence approach. Inquiry, 62, 469580251366142. link C Limited
8. Walter, B. F., Howard, L. M., & Fortna, V. P. (2021). The extraordinary relationship between peacekeeping and peace. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1705-1722. link B Moderate

Every source for this factor is listed on the societal factor page.